We say that's while these regimes are in power, their collapse seems inconceivable. But after they've collapsed, we say that it was inevitable
This was originally a blog response to Five Rupees blog post Faced with a choice between doing something hard and something easy, politicians will do what’s easy
He states the obvious (throwing in some obvious Freudian references to masala things up), politicians in Pakistan lack the foresight to do what Shahid Saeed wrote about so passionately: use recent events to challenge the Military-ISI domination over the state.
So forgive the rambling nature of the post..and for the record no it does nothing for my ego when you say you can't tell the difference between this and my regular posts.
First up special nod to economists bitterly funny cartoon about Pakistan
The counter question is: challenging the establishment in what way ? Is it a question of degrees? how does one judge the challenge? Is it outright opposition to the Mil-ISI? Or is it measured opposition where politicians ally with a certain faction of the establishment against the other?
The reality is the latter is already happening, there is a definite sense of glee amongst PPP & PML-N supporters in "civil society/media" at the Faujis plight. The attacks are harsh and aggressive in a manner that has not happened in Pakistan for almost 40 years, the Army has been mocked in all forms of social media: whether print/online (Taqis The hornet is dead, near the nest ) , Television (Kamran Khans “They have no answer,” Mr. Khan said. “We have become the biggest haven of terrorism in the world and we have failed to stop it.”: no i refuse to link to his show) , text message ("Radar For Sale, Model No. 438, Pakistan Army made, can't detect USA helicopters, but can receive Star Plus) and the final insult Rickshaw (Horn na bajao: Pak fauj so rahi hai). So like everything in Pakistan wheels are turning, behind the veneer of deference to the Faujis
The other fact is, just a year ago people were writing about how the Faujis had reasserted themselves and rebuilt their reputation after the Musharrafs years. The PPP had its first attempts at asserting control over intelligence agencies smacked down. Even a few months ago people, me included, were also writing off the PPP governments ability to even get close to completing its term.
But as they say a week is a long time in politics: the balance of power( fear?) has shifted again. The opportunity that has arisen is not because of the strength of the civilian government. Instead it is because of two factors, firstly the inherent contradictions in the establishments policy and secondly a radically changed international situation.
With that inherent weakness of the politicians/ civilians in mind the question really is, who will bell the billion dollar cat? My take is that if someone or something does bell the cat, the tipping point will be an almost trivial event.
Doubtful? Yeah me too.. but "nobody expected the spanish inquisition " or Tunisia .
