We say that's while these regimes are in power, their collapse seems inconceivable. But after they've collapsed, we say that it was inevitable
This was originally a blog response to Five Rupees blog post Faced with a choice between doing something hard and something easy, politicians will do what’s easy
He states the obvious (throwing in some obvious Freudian references to masala things up), politicians in Pakistan lack the foresight to do what Shahid Saeed wrote about so passionately: use recent events to challenge the Military-ISI domination over the state.
So forgive the rambling nature of the post..and for the record no it does nothing for my ego when you say you can't tell the difference between this and my regular posts.
First up special nod to economists bitterly funny cartoon about Pakistan
The counter question is: challenging the establishment in what way ? Is it a question of degrees? how does one judge the challenge? Is it outright opposition to the Mil-ISI? Or is it measured opposition where politicians ally with a certain faction of the establishment against the other?
The reality is the latter is already happening, there is a definite sense of glee amongst PPP & PML-N supporters in "civil society/media" at the Faujis plight. The attacks are harsh and aggressive in a manner that has not happened in Pakistan for almost 40 years, the Army has been mocked in all forms of social media: whether print/online (Taqis The hornet is dead, near the nest ) , Television (Kamran Khans “They have no answer,” Mr. Khan said. “We have become the biggest haven of terrorism in the world and we have failed to stop it.”: no i refuse to link to his show) , text message ("Radar For Sale, Model No. 438, Pakistan Army made, can't detect USA helicopters, but can receive Star Plus) and the final insult Rickshaw (Horn na bajao: Pak fauj so rahi hai). So like everything in Pakistan wheels are turning, behind the veneer of deference to the Faujis
The other fact is, just a year ago people were writing about how the Faujis had reasserted themselves and rebuilt their reputation after the Musharrafs years. The PPP had its first attempts at asserting control over intelligence agencies smacked down. Even a few months ago people, me included, were also writing off the PPP governments ability to even get close to completing its term.
But as they say a week is a long time in politics: the balance of power( fear?) has shifted again. The opportunity that has arisen is not because of the strength of the civilian government. Instead it is because of two factors, firstly the inherent contradictions in the establishments policy and secondly a radically changed international situation.
With that inherent weakness of the politicians/ civilians in mind the question really is, who will bell the billion dollar cat? My take is that if someone or something does bell the cat, the tipping point will be an almost trivial event.
Doubtful? Yeah me too.. but "nobody expected the spanish inquisition " or Tunisia .
6 comments:
I think along with fear of the military's reaction there is a fear that any kind of action against the military would backfire with the public. Public outrage is due largely to sovereignty violated due to the US raid - tbh I doubt there would be a lot of support for any attempt to cut the military down to size for colluding with Al-Qaeda. The most they could get away with would be an inquiry regarding "incompetence". It would be quite a fine balance between riding on the wave of public unhappiness with the army and losing popular support & being seen as acting in tandem with the US's wishes to cut the military down to size.
I do feel like they need to take the opportunity and do something, but Gilani would be the last person to do this. We might see something from Zardari in a few months when all the excitement has died down. but I doubt it. AT this point I think they are just sitting tight & glad that for once the heat is not on them.
"My take is that if someone or something does bell the cat, the tipping point will be an almost trivial event"
I wonder what would be better for the future of this country - if the pols sit tight and in return pull off five years and we have another election, or is someone goes for it. judging by the field, anyone going for it lacks the sort of charisma and clarity you'd expect from a bhutto 2.0 which means if someone tries, they're not going to achieve it. however, how would the army react and how far would it go in this climate? whattan MF.
Talat Hussain on propagating sms ("Radar For Sale, ...):
http://www.facebook.com/home.php#!/video/video.php?v=122932044452850&oid=112712178749159&comments
fb page says 'Posted by Pakistan Army Officers Club' & I know of plenty of educated ppl, even expats, who might endorse it. So maybe its not the right time for outright opposition. YRG's speech in parliament was all about defending Pak fauj
I don't get this statement of Hafsa now is not the right time. With the way things are moving, there never will be a right time and then one day we will realize that we don't have the country anymore for which we have fed and raised this huge army.
@Vanguard: maybe it is. I'm basing my opinion on the fact whether an outright opposition would get popular support. Pakistan might seem different when viewed through a prism of favourite blogs and twitter-feed.
@Rabia + @KK : thanks for visiting guys..I suppose my point is that if the establishment does crack over this issue it will not be because of the leaders we have..it will be inspite off!
@vanguard: A challenge is very much needed..but to be honest the reality that the Armed forces top brass are not very good at their jobs is not ground breaking. Any impartial read of events from 1948 to kargil would have confirmed that!
@hafa : yeah true like what Rabia said: Every successful challenge to military establishment has created a backlash historically. Junejos Ohrji camp +geneva accord comes to mind
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